# QE scale

To understand the scale of QE programs: from late 2007 to September 2018, the balance of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank increased by $ 11.7 trillion (16.2 vs. 4.4). Directly on the repurchase of assets of 10.55 trillion from the first four and another 700 billion from the SNB. The total public debt of the five currency zones listed above amounts to $ 43.5 trillion; the increment from the end of 2007 is $ 17.6 trillion, i.e. 2/3 of the cumulative growth of public debt was "intercepted" by central banks. The largest concentration of central money in Japan, where the rate of QE is 1.5 times higher (!) Than the growth rate of public debt. In other words, 100% monetization of government debt and another 50% as a gift))

If we evaluate the balances of the Central Bank at the market rate, then at the ECB it is the highest. In second place is the Bank of Japan and the Fed. Prior to this, the Fed was the leader for 4 years from April 2013 to April 2017.

The total balance of the five central banks is $ 16.2 trillion.

The same, but separately for each securities in billions of dollars

And in national currency

The rate of redemption fell to 400 billion a year for all sources.

The peak annual rate was about 2.5 trillion in the 4th quarter of 2008, two more times they tried to repeat the record in August 2016 and in the 1st quarter of 2018. From the second quarter, the QE intensity curve began to fall sharply.By the end of 2018 should go to zero and from 2019 to minus, i.e. there will be cleansing outflow of central liquidity. It is worth noting that for the entire period of “new normality” there were only two moments when the annual increase in assets on the Central Bank's balance sheets fell to zero - this is the 2nd quarter of 2010 (then the markets collapsed for the first time after the V-shaped recovery from March 2009) and the 2nd quarter of 2015 (also the moment of breaking the uptrend of exponential formality in the financial markets).

This time, the scrapping of an even more powerful uptrend from 2015 occurred in February 2018 - just the moment the QE intensity decreases. Since then, almost all developed and emerging markets in the flat (someone compensated for the winter decline, someone does not, but there is no pronounced growth, as in 2016-2017). The only exception is the US, where they updated the maximum.

But there the situation is different - special support to the market is provided by corporate buybacks and reinvested dividends, which, according to the integral account, makes up to 85% of net purchases at the moment. Yes, markets have become noticeably less dependent on central liquidity over the past 3 years. But, until now, stable generation of cash flow from the real sector could not be achieved except for the dollar zone, where moneybacks are to the detriment of not only investments,but often occur in debt! Now a new form of madness - buy the market in debt!

But all this means that there will not be a simple breaking of the markets before a new era of moderately tough or neutral politics. After 10 years of monetary madness, the departure from the drug dose of liquidity is painful by default. To what extent is another question.

If we evaluate the balances of the Central Bank at the market rate, then at the ECB it is the highest. In second place is the Bank of Japan and the Fed. Prior to this, the Fed was the leader for 4 years from April 2013 to April 2017.

The total balance of the five central banks is $ 16.2 trillion.

The same, but separately for each securities in billions of dollars

And in national currency

The rate of redemption fell to 400 billion a year for all sources.

The peak annual rate was about 2.5 trillion in the 4th quarter of 2008, two more times they tried to repeat the record in August 2016 and in the 1st quarter of 2018. From the second quarter, the QE intensity curve began to fall sharply.By the end of 2018 should go to zero and from 2019 to minus, i.e. there will be cleansing outflow of central liquidity. It is worth noting that for the entire period of “new normality” there were only two moments when the annual increase in assets on the Central Bank's balance sheets fell to zero - this is the 2nd quarter of 2010 (then the markets collapsed for the first time after the V-shaped recovery from March 2009) and the 2nd quarter of 2015 (also the moment of breaking the uptrend of exponential formality in the financial markets).

This time, the scrapping of an even more powerful uptrend from 2015 occurred in February 2018 - just the moment the QE intensity decreases. Since then, almost all developed and emerging markets in the flat (someone compensated for the winter decline, someone does not, but there is no pronounced growth, as in 2016-2017). The only exception is the US, where they updated the maximum.

But there the situation is different - special support to the market is provided by corporate buybacks and reinvested dividends, which, according to the integral account, makes up to 85% of net purchases at the moment. Yes, markets have become noticeably less dependent on central liquidity over the past 3 years. But, until now, stable generation of cash flow from the real sector could not be achieved except for the dollar zone, where moneybacks are to the detriment of not only investments,but often occur in debt! Now a new form of madness - buy the market in debt!

But all this means that there will not be a simple breaking of the markets before a new era of moderately tough or neutral politics. After 10 years of monetary madness, the departure from the drug dose of liquidity is painful by default. To what extent is another question.