Pension reform: what will happen next

Vladimir Putin made a televised address in which he called for a relaxation of the pension reform, which would raise the retirement age. In the government, the measures proposed by the president were estimated at several trillion rubles.
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First of all, Putin proposed raising the retirement age for women not to 63 years, as suggested earlier, but to 60. The retirement age for men will remain at 65 years. "In our country, the attitude towards women is special, careful. We understand that they not only work in their main place of work: they are usually the whole house, taking care of the family, raising children, and taking care of their grandchildren," the Russian president said.
Also, Vladimir Putin said it was necessary to further reduce the retirement age for mothers with many children: women who have three children must retire three years earlier, those with four, four years earlier. "For women who have five or more children, everything should remain as it is now, they will be able to retire at 50," the president said.
Putin also announced that additional guarantees are needed to protect the interests of older Russians in the labor market. In particular, the introduction of "administrative and even criminal" responsibility for the dismissal of employees of pre-retirement age and the refusal to hire them.
The president also instructed the government to approve a special advanced training program for older citizens. In addition, he proposed to increase from 4.9 to 11.3 thousand rubles unemployment benefit for citizens of pre-retirement age who voluntarily left work. Such a rule will be valid for one year.
In addition, the head of state said that it is necessary to maintain the current conditions for granting pensions for small indigenous peoples of the North, as well as to support villagers. Putin also said that those who started working early should have the opportunity to retire taking into account the work done: “I suggest reducing the length of service for three years giving the right to early retirement for women under 37 years old and for men up to 42.”
Another proposal was the idea to preserve for the transitional period, until the completion of reforms in the pension system, all federal benefits effective as of December 31, that is, on real estate and land taxes.
At the end of his speech, Vladimir Putin stressed the inevitability of decisions: “It’s really not possible to postpone. In the long-term, if we are hesitant, it can threaten the stability of society, and therefore the security of the country. We must develop. We must overcome poverty, ensure a decent life for older people, both current and future retirees. We have to make a difficult, difficult but necessary decision. I ask you to treat this with understanding. "
As reported by Davydov.Indeks, Putin had distanced himself from discussing the issue of raising the retirement age. On July 20, during a meeting with volunteers in Kaliningrad, the president said that the final decision had not yet been made, also noting that he did not like any of the pension reform options.
After the President’s speech, the Ministry of Finance estimated that the implementation of the President’s initiatives on pension reform would cost about 500 billion rubles. According to the head of department, Anton Siluanov, the changes will require clarification of budget plans and budget plans of the Pension Fund.It is from there, as the head of the department indicated, that funds will be taken to implement the president’s proposals.
Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova is confident that this figure will be even higher - 3.6 trillion rubles over six years from 2029, that is, after the end of the transition period of reform. According to her, the softening will affect 2.4 million Russian women.
Experts have differently evaluated the speech of Vladimir Putin. Many called it a bold act, noting that the president had completely taken responsibility for unpopular decisions. At the same time, some found the speech of the head of state unconvincing, stressing that the electorate of the president would not accept this position and the need to raise the retirement age as a whole.
Political analyst Abbas Galliamov argues about the possible influence of the president’s speech on power ratings and people's attitudes to reform: “Putin’s speech yesterday’s Putin will not change people's attitudes. Just a certain number of people will accept the inevitability of raising the retirement age. The main result will be to minimize damage to the rating of Putin himself.The pro-government propagandists had the opportunity to say that "the president did not shift the responsibility for unpopular reform onto the shoulders of his subordinates, but took it upon himself." People respect such things. In addition, Putin’s speech showed clear sympathy for people who were not in the texts of other reform advocates. It seems to me that the president has managed to establish emotional contact with a significant part of the population. Nevertheless, the general level of social optimism in the country will only decline further. It became obvious that things were not going so brilliantly as official propaganda assured us. The confidence in the latter will also go down now. "
Alexander Zaitsev, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Philosophy, Cultural Studies and Social Communications shares his impression of Vladimir Putin’s televised address. what is a national leaderable to solve the problem on the eve of a conflict, when most of the country's population was not ready to accept the reform proposed by the government. It is generally striking that Dmitry Medvedev practically withdrew and disappeared from sight. United Russia has significantly lost in the rankings, because on the one hand it demanded strict adherence to the plan proposed by the government, but it turned out that Putin did not support this reform option. <...>
Reform is really necessary, and all competent experts agree on this. However, it should not be tough. Putin explained everything very clearly and intelligibly. I hope that the people will calm down a little about this. "
Member of the Public Chamber of the Udmurt Republic, Rashid Khusnutdinov, positively assessed the President’s speech: “The speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the subject of changes in the pension legislation is perhaps the most important political event of this month. <...>
The appeal of Vladimir Putin was almost entirely devoted to the topic of justice and responsibility that we bear before future generations.The demand for this in Russian society has been and remains great, which means that the president’s words will resonate in the hearts of citizens.
Of course, this appeal will reduce the intensity of passions and increase the percentage of people who accept the reform as inevitable. <...> I think it will also reduce the government’s anti-rating, since the president shared responsibility with his colleagues, repeatedly emphasizing that the actions of the executive branch are coordinated with him. "
Political analyst Pavel Nalyvayko draws attention to the importance of the chosen appeal format. In his opinion, pension reform is unlikely to cause strong reputational losses for United Russia and the government as a whole: “In my opinion, the format of a direct appeal to the population has become an important component that reduced negative moods in society. he understands the seriousness of the issue, and as a national leader took a certain reputational blow upon himself.
In any case, even in such circumstances, dissatisfied residents will remain, who for some time will perceive this topic with hostility. But you need to understand that the upcoming phase of the election cycle of two to three years will be held without major federal elections. Therefore, a possible drop in the United Russia rating is not fatal.The “party of power” and without pension reform occasionally had its ups and downs, in connection with which its leadership is now trying to restart its own positioning and the very format of working with the population.
As for the government of the Russian Federation, in this period of time he will have the opportunity to rehabilitate himself, starting to demonstrate the positive aspects of pension reform, primarily due to the increase in pensions, as well as the execution of the presidential decree of May 7, 2018. "
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The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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