Less money, more spending

The Russians began to spend more money on large purchases, while most of them still have no savings.
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This is stated in the September report of the Bank of Russia and the Public Opinion Foundation, devoted to inflation expectations and consumer sentiment. In particular, analysts note that after another weakening of the ruble exchange rate, 64% of respondents admitted that they had been spending large amounts in the last three months, although only 21% of respondents considered good time to make large purchases. A year earlier, 58% and 25% of respondents responded positively to these same questions, respectively.
Most likely, in September, as it has been the past few months, Rosstat will again register a weak increase in the consumption of non-food items amid a decline in food purchases, Kommersant writes. In addition, stagnation or decline in income, growth in lending to citizens and an outflow of deposits from banks are expected - even though the Central Bank has increased the key rate.
In August, the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank itself explained this by a change in the behavioral model of the population from savings to consumer. The regulator cited data from Rosstat, according to which households spent 6.5% of their income on savings in the first half of 2018 against 8.1% a year earlier. In January-July 2018, this figure dropped to 5.9%, the lowest level in the last 15 years.
According to Rosstat, savings are changes in deposits, accounts of individual entrepreneurs, debt on loans, as well as the purchase of securities and real estate. The marked decline in the share of spending on savings is largely due to the rapid recovery of private lending, 24% of which is mortgage. This type of lending, as well as an increase in the growth of purchases of non-food items (equipment and cars) for Russians, is a kind of investment. In this regard, it is not surprising that 67% of Russians currently do not have savings, the newspaper notes. At the same time, among those who do not have savings, there is a large proportion of people who cannot afford to use apartments, gadgets and cars.
“If we talk about the part of households that officials attribute to the change of the behavioral model, it is worth noting that the volume of loans issued to citizens from January to August increased by 3.1 billion rubles, deposits by 3.2 billion rubles, loans to the volume of deposits has not even reached the level of the first half of 2012, "- said in a review of the Central Bank and FOM.
As reported by "Davydov.Indeks", in mid-September it became known that the expenses of people with low incomes increased by 8.1%, despite the fact that the index of buying activity all summer remained at the same level. In addition, for the fifth consecutive month, the average check of shoppers in stores continues to decline. In August, he was 495 rubles. Compared with July, its value decreased by another 1 ruble, or 0.2%. The expenses of residents of the country for one visit to the store are reduced, thus, starting from April. True, in 2017 the decline in the average check was even more noticeable - by 4.4%, to 518 rubles.
These Central Bank commented on the senior lecturer of the Department of Economics of the Volgograd branch of the Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanova Galina Kuzibetskaya: "As is known, inflation rates are higher for groups of goods enjoying high consumer demand: food,essential goods and services, that is, those expenses for which occupy a large share in the household budget. Therefore, people are forced to part of the funds that they had previously saved, to spend on immediate needs.
And another problem of Russian households, most of which belong to the category with lower than average incomes, is the lack of understanding of the need to optimize their budget in such a way that they can save at least 10% of their income, forming the so-called financial safety cushion. And in this case, the problem is not the lack of income, but the illiteracy of spending money. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of Vyatka State University Larisa Suvorova (Kirov) calls the revealed trend predictable and connects it with a seasonal increase in spending: technology, as well as gadgets for pupils and students.As a rule, since September, the demand for housing is growing and the costs of its repair and improvement are increasing. <...>
In connection with the above prerequisites and expectations of increasing household incomes — an increase in pensions (from January 2019) and public sector wages (implementation of the May presidential decrees) —inflationary price increases will remain, but in average they will not exceed 4% in their economic indicators. <...>
The ruble exchange rate fluctuates, but it is unlikely to fall below the 63 ruble mark, the upper limit can be determined by the degree of strengthening of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation.
In general, the model of household behavior in terms of propensity to save is predictable for the current period of the year. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Theory and Practice Department of Management of the Orenburg Branch of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Tagir Sharipov shares his opinion on the reasons for the transition from savings to consumption: the outflow of deposits from banks even after the increase in the key rate by the regulator may indicate a decrease in confidence in financial and economic policy.
The change in households' financial strategy towards the growth of large purchases, in my opinion, is primarily due to the expectation of inflation growth due to the weakening ruble exchange rate. It can also be explained by the fact that households have been saving for a long time, postponing purchases for later, and the expectation of inflation and the increase in VAT have pushed for a change in the savings strategy to a consumption strategy.
As for inflation, then, in my opinion, some growth will be observed at the end of this year and in early 2019 due to increased demand. Demand will spur prices, and an increase in VAT will be a reason for sellers to raise prices, although the direct impact should be within 1.7%. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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